Third Annual Super Bowl Prediction

I feel like a mule that picks football winners on a Topeka, Kansas local television station. There’s always some animal the media dredges up that has some fantastic skill at randomly choosing which team will win the Super Bowl. It’s nutty.  But, who can assuredly pick this Sunday’s Super Bowl 46 winner? Like they say in politics-it’s too close to call. But I will.

Two teams that are very close in talent, coaching, and quarterbacking.  It is almost a little boring. The Patriots are 2.5 point favorites, which are strange because the Giants defeated them, 24-20 this season. I guess the bookies need Giants money.  Pick ’em is more like it.

It would have been nice if say, San Francisco had gotten to the big game, or New Orleans-they’re always fun, but no we are stuck with the establishment, New York and Boston. Is Reggie Jackson going to call the coin flip? God forbid Steven Tyler is an honorary captain.

Both teams are worthy. The Patriots have a young squad that steadily matured, especially on defense, and of course are quarterbacked by Tom Brady. Just Brady on the field makes a team favored to win. The Giants feature a retro four man defensive line that puts constant pressure on an offense. Their quarterback, Eli Manning is performing better than anyone else.

It is the Giants pass rush that will cause New England problems. Brady is great when he can set up and throw quickly.  Slot receiver Wes Welker is seemingly always open (over a hundred catches), and those two tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski are literally huge nightmare match ups for the Giants young secondary.

But here’s the rub. Gronkowski is hurting with a high ankle sprain suffered against Baltimore. There have been a lot of these going around this year. They basically end your effectiveness (see Ben Roethlisberger). Gronk says he’ll play but, I don’t think he’ll do much more than occupy a defender.

New England will need to run the ball more. And that means “the law firm”- Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, getting twenty carries. The Pats ground game has been sporadic, with only one hundred yard runner all year among four running backs . Danny Woodhead complements Green- Ellis, but isn’t a threat to break a long run. The Patriots longest run from scrimmage this season was a scant thirty-three yards. They even line up tight end Aaron Hernandez in the backfield.  Have you heard of Steve Ridley? I hadn’t, but he led New England in rushing several times this season.

To keep Brady upright and to slow the Giants pass rush, the Pats must continue to do well on first down. They were able to get in second down and short yardage over %60 of the time this season. They like to use the quick pass to Welker of course, but I would run straight at the Giants too.

The Giants proved they could win ugly against he 49’er’s, taking advantage of two special team gaffes on punts.  They face an underrated, young and improving defense in New England.  Veteran nose tackle Vince Wolfork is probably the best at his position. Linebacker Andre Carter with ten sacks, is an emerging star. So is fellow linebacker Rob Ninkovich.  A guy named Mark Anderson had ten sacks. Yes, this defense can play well enough to win.

The Giants have a plethora of weapons. Ahmad Bradshaw is the typical third down back that plays on most snaps. He should get his yards.  It’s hard to call Brandon Jacobs a power back. He runs like he’s on a chain gang. I think Eli will dump the ball off to fullback Henry Hynoski out of the backfield more often.

Working behind just an average but veteran offensive line, Manning will feel pressure, but he moves in the pocket so much better than Brady. That’s how they beat New England four Super Bowls ago-Manning was able to escape the pass rush.

He should do so again, especially when he has wide outs Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Victor Cruz that continually turn Manning’s throws into big plays. Cruz has become the talk of the NFL, and I think the Patriots will not want to leave him in single coverage.

There is talk that game will be a high scoring shoot out (the over/under is 55). I’m not so sure. Both teams need to keep the other off the field. Brady likes to work fast. The Pats’ time of possession this season was less than their opponents, which can be good and bad. They score quickly, but will the Giants relentless offense tire out the New England defense?

So who will win it? I’ve been riding the Giants for six weeks now, but for some reason I feel Brady and the Pats with the revenge factor to win. It’s hard to figure.

Wait… My cat Spooky just came in the house. Ok, if he goes for his food it’s New England. If he goes for his catnip mouse toy it’s New York.   And … he’s going for… the catnip mouse toy!!

Giants 24-23.

Thomas H. Mann writes about recovery, sports, and American culture.

The Terrible Tebow

This pains me but I can’t hold it inside for another day.  Tim Tebow. You can stop reading now and I will fully understand. But, I do have some input that I think may be enlightening about the Denver Broncos quarterback and the constant fawning over his being.

Obviously this simple man has become the ad nauseum topic of the 2011 NFL season. Like they say, “you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him”. The media won’t let go of Tebow whether he plays well or poorly. And recently it’s been hard to watch.  His play has been pedestrian, even eccentric and the Broncos, after a six game winning streak when Tebow replaced starter Kyle Orton, have now lost three straight games to stagger into the play-offs at 8-8.  They will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday (17-3 sounds about right) in the AFC wild card game.

There are many more talented and successful players to discuss – Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Ray Rice.  Rob Gronkowski and Victor Cruz are having breakout years. Even the 49’ers Alex Smith is playing well.  So why Tebow? Always Tebow.

There are simple answers. He won the Heisman Trophy at Florida. (Many Heisman winners are busts as pros.)  No. 1 draft pick.  He is white. He is a devout Christian. He throws with the wrong arm (his left). The name is a great sports name – alliterative as Mickey Mantle. Say it….  Tim Tebow.  What if the guy was born Arnold Schlabotnick?  Doesn’t roll off the tongue as well.  Madison Avenue loves him too.  Did you see Tebow roaming around our world in that white t-shirt for Fruit of the Loom on television during the off-season?  It was hard not to entertain a man-crush.

But really, it’s the way he plays the game.  Tebow plays in the NFL like we played on the sandlots, in touch football, flag football, or intra-murals.  He’s out there slingin’ the pigskin around. Like we all did and think we still could.  He throws wounded duck passes, and when he doesn’t do that he can put his head down and snow plow a defender. Tebow doesn’t slide. Blue-collar dude. His style of play begs sports talk show hosts to debate.  He can. No he can’t.

And that sort sums up Denver’s offense this season, which consists of a running game and then Tebow “making plays”. Sometimes it works, other times not. The fact that in most of the Broncos wins this year, they have been abysmal for three quarters before Tebow suddenly ran and passed them to a come from behind victory in fourth quarter only enhances our fantasies. No matter that Tebow’s statistics are awful. Less than 50% completion rate, with one game of two completions and another of six just doesn’t cut it in the NFL.  He’s able to run for scores, and qb’s who can run are infinitely more enjoyable than your basic drop back thrower.  Hell, we can’t read defenses either, but when nobody’s open in our weekend pick-up game we just take off and run for it too. The average Joe in his living room on Sunday wants to root for this guy. He’s got working class written all over him. (Fun Fact:  I bet you didn’t know Tebow was born in Makati City in the Philippines.)

The player Tebow brings to mind is Bobby Douglass.  Drafted out of Kansas by Chicago before the 1972 season, he was, like Tebow, left handed, big (especially for 72’) at 6’4” and 225 lbs, and a prolific runner.  Douglass played parts of seven seasons for the Bears, and was nothing more than a curiosity.  He did rush for 968 yards one season, but no one thought then that a team could win with a left handed running quarterback.  And the Bears couldn’t, never winning more than four games in a (14 game) season with Douglass under center.

After being cut loose by the Bears in 77’ Douglass went to San Diego, then played a few years with the expansion Saints and finally the Packers before becoming an NFL footnote.

Steve Young was the left-handed quarterback who broke the mold. But Young paid his dues. Two years at Tampa Bay, then four years behind the great Joe Montana at San Francisco during their 80’s Super Bowl years. When Young did become the starter his ability to pass accurately (70% completion rate in the 1994 season) and run propelled him to seven Pro Bowls and the 49’ers to two more Super Bowl wins in ’89 and ’94.  He was elected to the NFL Hall of Fame in 2005.

Tebow really hasn’t served his apprenticeship. And I don’t hear any talking heads saying he’s the second coming of Steve Young.  After a 1-4 start new Broncos coach John Fox decided what the hell, the fans want Tebow, they’ll get Tebow.  Executive vice-president of football operations John Elway, arguably the greatest all around quarterback of the modern era has reluctantly gone along with the decision, but he’s got to be grinding his teeth every time he sees Tebow throw one of his passes to nowhere. Elway was a sports car, Tebow’s a 4×4.

Let’s review. Young, white, left handed, Christian male who plays the game like we think we did in scholastic intramurals is hyped by media, trashed by purists, but has some late game heroics and leads Broncos to play-off berth.  This scenario will play for a few months in America.  When midnight strikes on Tebow he will have done his job though.  He became a 24/7 human news cycle.

Someday he’ll be a good answer to a trivia question at the local tavern.  Just like Bobby Douglass.

Thomas H. Mann writes about recovery, sports, and American culture.

2nd Annual Super Bowl Prediction

Even for the Pittsburgh native that I am, predicting the Steelers to beat Green Bay in Super Bowl XV, tries whatever sense I have left. Picking either team to win is like choosing between sex and drugs.

I’ve been touting Green Bay all year. How this team lost six games is beyond me. Aaron Rodgers has been superb all year, carrying an offense of mostly unheard of young players to the ultimate game. Rodgers has made me forget Brett Favre’s drama filled life for at least two weeks, which has been both spiritually cleansing and deserved. The Packers beat two good teams in the play-offs, Philly and Atlanta, and then had to defeat division rival Chicago in Soldier Field, in a game that wasn’t as close as the score.

The Steelers got dominated at home by New England during the season and it was assumed the Pats would do it again in the play-offs. But Rex Ryan fired up his Jets enough to put a beating on Tom Brady, and get the Steelers off the hook. With Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller in the lineup (neither were during the Jets regular season win at Pittsburgh), the Steelers broke the Jets spirit early and hung on to win.

Now they face almost a mirror image of themselves in the Packers. The Steelers defense led the NFL in sacks. Green Bay had one less. Both teams play a 3-4 defense and have a mobile play maker with great hair — Polamalu for Pittsburgh and young Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks) for the Packers. Each went to USC too. Like Ben Roethlisberger, Rodgers is big and fast enough to move out of the pocket and run for first downs. His passing accuracy is excellent. I don’t remember him throwing a bad one. The Steelers have an all-Pro veteran wide receiver in Hines Ward, surrounded by a flock of young receivers. So do the Pack, with Donald Driver mentoring Greg Jennings et, al. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers did the same job for the Steelers under head coach Bill Cowher.  Green Bay has one player with a Super Bowl ring – all purpose back John Kuhn – he got it with the Steelers in 2008. Both squads have overcome massive injuries (Green Bay has thirteen players on injured reserve). Had enough? Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy is from Pittsburgh, starting his coaching career at Pitt. And, both teams want to run the ball, understanding that it is rushing attempts per game that is as important as rushing yards.

This is where the game should be decided. The Steelers run the ball better. The Packers had one hundred yard rusher, Brandon Jackson, during the season and in three games Rodgers was the leading rusher. Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall led the Steelers in rushing in every game, ran for over 1,200 yards and is an excellent runner after contact. Like Willie Parker in the previous two Steeler Super Bowl appearances, Mendenhall is always a threat to break a long one. No team runs the ball well on the Steelers. It just doesn’t happen.

No matter what you think of Ben Roethlisberger, he’s tough. Playing behind a huge, plodding offensive line, he took what was equivalent to a medieval flogging in every game, partly because he holds the ball forever. His receivers are superb at breaking off their routes and getting open, so Ben makes plays. He’s also performed in and won two Super Bowls. Aaron Rodgers is just starting. I know all-pro center Maurkice Pouncey is hurt, but I think Doug Legursky will play well enough. Remember, Pittsburgh has the best blocking-if not the best all around tight end in the NFL with Heath Miller.

Why the Packers are 2.5 point favorites is beyond me. I think the book makers thought it the only way to get enough Steelers money. Both fan bases are huge, with Cheeseheads and Terrible Towels being as omnipresent as ESPN features on Vince Lombardi and the Steel Curtain. I feel an excitement about this game unlike any Super Bowl in memory. Lucky for Fox (not that they deserve it) that 2011 was there year to air the game.

This should be a close, well played game. Green Bay is a solid team with a lot of depth, and a quarterback that looks like another John Elway. But Pittsburgh has been here, done this. After being the best team not to make the play-offs last season, they have been hungry all year. Big Ben will host the feast again.

Steelers  23-20

Thomas H. Mann writes about recovery, sports, and American culture.

The Day the Igloo Died

Nobody will experience this Igloo of an arena again. It hosted the entertainment of my lifetime. And it will always have a place in my Pittsburgh skyline.

Ben Roethlisberger: even dumber than a brick

My friend Tom Stinson at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution always told me Ben Roethlisberger was dumber than a brick. I didn’t want to believe him. I thought Roethlisberger, with his Muppet-like hairstyle and what me-worry gaze just looked stupid. I now stand corrected. Big Ben is dumber than he looks.

Tiger’s Tale

It’s almost fashionable to be in rehab now. Checking in for drugs and alcohol is fairly understood, but sex? Isn’t that what men do? Obviously, it was what Tiger did. If he had not been legally married would he or his public still consider him an addict?

Super Bowl XLIV Prediction

If you’re betting, take the points. Who will win it? It’s all about Peyton.

The Twelve Steps of Super Bowl Sunday

Here are my Twelve Steps to navigating the unforgiving sensory social assault that will be brought to bear on us between now and Super Bowl Sunday.

Mark McGwire’s Tears

I’m tired of Mark McGwire’s tears. He choked back tears when he testified before Congress, and now he’s getting all mushy with Bob Costas. His sniffling almost makes me yearn for a Barry Bonds interview. Wait….lost my head, nothing is that bad.

Cornell Men’s Basketball – So Long, Steve Donahue

If I were looking to see where Donahue might take his act next year, I’d make a guess a school near Philadelphia in a larger conference that pays more money and has better winter weather, and of course, offers athletic scholarships. If that sounds like St. Joe’s you’re reading my mind.